BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-tailed Grouse Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-tailed Grouse has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Nebraska is projected to rise about 131% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±334.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+131%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±334.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Nebraska is projected to rise about 131% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±334.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.44
20260.190.000.44
20270.190.000.44
20280.190.000.44
20290.190.000.44

Sharp-tailed Grouse Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oglala Nat. Grass.420181999
Piester Lake420211967
Ringgold420131990
Brownlee420081993
Eagle Creek319731973
Crawford320021984
Bartlett219681968
Murray Lake220182000
Mullen220131996
Nenzel220242022
Pine Ridge120242001
Dalton119961995
Swan Lake120141977
Agate119831968
Kennedy120232009
Table120152009
Gordon120121980
Arthur120101996
Crescent Lk120121981
Berea120122012
Hay Springs120242019
Bassett120222022
Wheeler Co119791979
Berwyn120101997

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomichiganminnesotamontananorth-dakotasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.