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Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in North Dakota

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Sharp-tailed Grouse in North Dakota has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-tailed Grouse Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-tailed Grouse in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in North Dakota is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.15–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in North Dakota is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.15–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.084.5
20272.30.104.5
20282.30.124.5
20292.30.144.5
20302.40.154.6

Sharp-tailed Grouse Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carson5120251988
Bentley2820241988
Gorham1820251968
Denbigh920251971
Sheyenne Lk820251986
Walcott720152015
Buchanan720251983
Douglas Crk720231982
Webster620242007
Zap620241968
Lark519821972
Emerado420252006
Loraine420121983
Danzig 2420252021
Bowesmont 2420162016
Roosevelt Pk320191982
Cooperstown220251988
Horsehead Lk220251981
Lakota220082004
Rolla220171987
Regan220191980
Dickinson220251969
Stanley220251967
Bowman220251980
Golva220251987

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomichiganminnesotamontananebraskasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.