BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Montana has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-tailed Grouse Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-tailed Grouse in Montana. See the full index history below.

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Montana is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Montana is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.670.001.6
20260.670.001.6
20270.670.001.6
20280.670.001.6
20290.670.001.6

Sharp-tailed Grouse Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redstone2920241968
Cleveland1420171979
Webster1320241980
Malta1120191979
Dinosaurs H.M.920242021
Chuffey Spring920242016
Shawmut720241982
Powderville720241970
Glasgow620211968
Locate620241982
Lindsay620232015
Sunburst520061988
Westby520242021
Sun River520242024
Highwood420241968
Roy420241988
Heart Butte420242015
Gildford420192015
Lambert420242021
Savage320211968
Boulder319691969
Laurel320161974
Shelby320222015
Winnett320212017
Jordan South320172016

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomichiganminnesotanebraskanorth-dakotasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.