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Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Montana

All statesGame birds

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Montana has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+7%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-tailed Grouse Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-tailed Grouse in Montana. See the full index history below.

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Montana is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Montana is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.690.001.7
20270.700.001.7
20280.700.001.7
20290.700.001.7
20300.710.001.7

Sharp-tailed Grouse Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawmut2220251982
Webster1620251980
Cleveland1420171979
Winnett1220252017
Malta1120191979
Powderville720241970
Glasgow620211968
Lindsay620232015
Sunburst520061988
Saco520252016
Sun River520242024
Roundup520252019
Highwood420241968
Roy420241988
Shelby420252015
Gildford420192015
Savage320211968
Boulder319691969
Laurel320161974
Heart Butte320252015
Westby320252021
Jordan South320252016
Cabin Creek320252025
Virgelle220241992
Oswego220211978

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomichiganminnesotanebraskanorth-dakotasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.