BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Great Basin has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-83%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-tailed Grouse has collapsed in Great Basin: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±442%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±442%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±442%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.000.000.08
20200.000.000.08
20210.000.000.08
20220.000.000.08
20230.000.000.08

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArdenvoirWASHINGTON41969
Blackft ResIDAHO22001
Johnson CanUTAH22018
BatesIDAHO12018
Daniels ResIDAHO12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.