BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-tailed Grouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±167.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.17
20260.070.000.17
20270.070.000.17
20280.070.000.17
20290.070.000.17

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Piester LakeNEBRASKA42021
RinggoldNEBRASKA42013
BrownleeNEBRASKA42008
BartlettNEBRASKA21968
MullenNEBRASKA22013
NenzelNEBRASKA22024
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12014
KennedyNEBRASKA12023
TableNEBRASKA12015
GordonNEBRASKA12012
ArthurNEBRASKA12010
Crescent LkNEBRASKA12012
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA11979
BerwynNEBRASKA12010
BassettNEBRASKA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.