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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGame birds

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-tailed Grouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.17
20270.070.000.17
20280.070.000.17
20290.070.000.17
20300.070.000.17

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RinggoldNEBRASKA42013
BrownleeNEBRASKA42008
BartlettNEBRASKA21968
GordonNEBRASKA22025
MullenNEBRASKA22013
NenzelNEBRASKA22024
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12014
Piester LakeNEBRASKA12025
KennedyNEBRASKA12025
TableNEBRASKA12015
ArthurNEBRASKA12010
Crescent LkNEBRASKA12012
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA11979
BerwynNEBRASKA12010
BassettNEBRASKA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.