BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+106%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-tailed Grouse has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.39–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.39–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.331.9
20261.10.341.9
20271.20.362.0
20281.20.372.0
20291.20.392.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedstoneMONTANA292024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA152024
ClevelandMONTANA142017
MaltaMONTANA112019
ErieMINNESOTA92015
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA72015
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA72023
GlasgowMONTANA62021
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA62024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA62024
BadgerMINNESOTA52017
SunburstMONTANA52006
WestbyMONTANA52024
Sun RiverMONTANA52024
GildfordMONTANA42019
LambertMONTANA42024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA42012
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA42016
GryglaMINNESOTA32017
ShelbyMONTANA32022
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA31973
OkleeMINNESOTA22021
Big StoneMINNESOTA22007
VirgelleMONTANA22024
OswegoMONTANA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.