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Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGame birds

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+48%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-tailed Grouse in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.37–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.37–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.311.9
20271.10.331.9
20281.10.341.9
20291.10.351.9
20301.20.372.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClevelandMONTANA142017
MaltaMONTANA112019
ErieMINNESOTA92015
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA92025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA82025
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA72015
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA72025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA72023
GlasgowMONTANA62021
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA62024
BadgerMINNESOTA52017
SunburstMONTANA52006
SacoMONTANA52025
Sun RiverMONTANA52024
ShelbyMONTANA42025
GildfordMONTANA42019
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA42025
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA42012
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA42025
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA42016
GryglaMINNESOTA32017
WestbyMONTANA32025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA31973
OkleeMINNESOTA22021
Big StoneMINNESOTA22007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.