BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 999% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+999%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-tailed Grouse has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 998% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.06–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±390.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±390.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.06–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±390.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.040.43
20260.240.040.43
20270.240.050.44
20280.250.050.44
20290.250.060.45

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreenbushMINNESOTA262024
LudeMINNESOTA102023
WarroadMINNESOTA72024
PickfordMICHIGAN32024
Nett LakeMINNESOTA22024
Seney NwrMICHIGAN12009
FloodwoodMINNESOTA12017
DebsMINNESOTA11981
Little ForkMINNESOTA12023
WaskishMINNESOTA12023
McgregorMINNESOTA12015
MinongWISCONSIN12024
Union TwpWISCONSIN12000
ExelandWISCONSIN11980
GilmanWISCONSIN12005
PhillipsWISCONSIN11994
FlambeauWISCONSIN12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.