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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGame birds

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

16×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-tailed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.07–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.07–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.050.45
20270.260.060.46
20280.260.060.46
20290.270.070.47
20300.270.070.47

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarroadMINNESOTA122025
GreenbushMINNESOTA122025
PickfordMICHIGAN32024
LudeMINNESOTA32025
McgregorMINNESOTA22025
Nett LakeMINNESOTA22024
Seney NwrMICHIGAN12009
FloodwoodMINNESOTA12017
DebsMINNESOTA11981
Little ForkMINNESOTA12023
WaskishMINNESOTA12023
MinongWISCONSIN12024
Union TwpWISCONSIN12000
ExelandWISCONSIN11980
GilmanWISCONSIN12005
PhillipsWISCONSIN11994
FlambeauWISCONSIN12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.