BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird

TurdidaeForest birdsSialia sialis

Eastern Bluebird has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,634RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Eastern Bluebird

A beloved blue-and-rust thrush of open country and orchards, the Eastern Bluebird rebounded across the East thanks to widespread nest-box programs.

Size
6.5–8.5 in long, about 1.1 oz (16–21 cm, 31 g)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects taken from a low perch, plus berries in winter.
Range
Recorded on 2,634 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 42 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Turdidae · Forest birds
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Eastern Bluebird TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.2–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.2–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.33.05.5
20264.33.15.5
20274.33.15.6
20284.43.15.6
20294.43.25.6

Where the Eastern Bluebird Is Detected

BBS routes recording Eastern Bluebird, sized by most recent count.

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend by State

Eastern Bluebird population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+138%1968107
Arizona-33%19704
Arkansas-36%196959
Colorado-74%199312
Connecticut+283%196820
Delaware24×196915
Florida+29%1968102
Georgia+122%1968111
Illinois+81%1968104
Indiana+14%196867
Iowa+13%196938
Kansas+169%196960
Kentucky-59%196864
Louisiana+98%196983
Maine+199%196853
Maryland+742%196876
Massachusetts+502%196829
Michigan+66%1968106
Minnesota-26%196981
Mississippi+116%196871
Missouri+16%196995
Montanainsufficient datan/a3
Nebraska+173%196959
New Hampshire+393%196826
New Jersey+615%196836
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a4
New York+285%1968124
North Carolina+413%1968108
North Dakota+28%197143
Ohio+38%196888
Oklahoma-64%196969
Pennsylvania+263%1968135
Rhode Island+367%19733
South Carolina+105%196851
South Dakota-31%196940
Tennessee+63%196854
Texas+39%1969151
Vermont+107%196826
Virginia+502%196886
West Virginia-13%196862
Wisconsin-20%196898
Wyominginsufficient datan/a11

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Eastern Bluebird population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes-53%196989
Boreal Hardwood Transition-46%1968118
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+425%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest+134%1968131
Badlands and Prairies-37%197050
Shortgrass Prairie-39%197926
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+29%1969117
Edwards Plateau+317%197119
Oaks and Prairies-35%196974
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+66%1968275
Prairie Hardwood Transition+56%1968159
Central Hardwoods-37%1968166
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-41%1969108
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+54%196867
Southeastern Coastal Plain+229%1968340
Appalachian Mountains+34%1968395
Piedmont+340%1968169
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+712%1968145
Peninsular Florida-29%196858
Sierra Madre Occidental-64%19704
Gulf Coastal Prairie+293%197026

Eastern Bluebird Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it up about 9% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.