BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Tennessee has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Tennessee: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 10–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 10–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026159.420
2027159.620
2028159.721
2029159.921
2030151021

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt4820251966
Collinwood4120251966
Big Sandy3820251966
Corryton Rd3420191966
Lovell3020191966
Mansfield2920251966
Indian Mound2919981966
Peytonsville2520251966
Whiteville2120251966
Union Hill1820241967
Petersburg1720191966
Glen1720251966
Brownsville1420251966
Belotes Bend1420181966
Jasper1420251967
Pond Creek1320251966
Silerton1220241966
White House1220191966
Bradyville1120211966
Jefferson Cty1120111966
Mt Olive1120241968
Trenton1020231966
Indian Mound 21020232004
Signal Mtn920251979
Allens Brdge920231967

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.