BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Tennessee has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has risen sharply in Tennessee: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 9.9–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.9–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 9.9–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025159.220
2026159.420
2027159.521
2028159.721
2029159.921

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Collinwood4020241966
Big Sandy3920241966
Humboldt3420241966
Corryton Rd3420191966
Lovell3020191966
Mansfield2920241966
Indian Mound2919981966
Peytonsville2320241966
Whiteville2220241966
Jasper1920241967
Union Hill1820241967
Petersburg1720191966
Pond Creek1420241966
Belotes Bend1420181966
Signal Mtn1320241979
Tibbs1320241967
Silerton1220241966
Lewis Forest1220241966
White House1220191966
Moscow1120241966
Brownsville1120241966
Bradyville1120211966
Jefferson Cty1120111966
Mt Olive1120241968
Trenton1020231966

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.