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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Arkansas has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 3.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±224.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±224.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 3.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±224.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.03.211
20277.03.211
20287.03.311
20297.13.311
20307.13.411

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stark1920251967
Nance1820251992
Farwell1720182010
Saffell1620191967
Blakely1419991968
Maynard1320251967
Ravenden Springs1320152010
Crows1119911967
Zion1120251967
Lockesburg1020192010
Havana920212010
Lurton720231967
Fulton720251967
Centerton720252010
Stephens620252010
Stamps520241967
Rupert520241967
Eudora420251967
Ramsey419971967
Poyen420071967
Harrisburg420191967
Coal Hill420231967
Avoca420241967
Dell420232016
Russell420212010

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.