BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Arkansas has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 3.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±215.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±215.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 3.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±215.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.13.411
20267.23.411
20277.23.511
20287.23.511
20297.33.611

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zion2620241967
Farwell1720182010
Saffell1620191967
England1520242010
Blakely1419991968
Ravenden Springs1320152010
Maynard1220241967
Crows1119911967
Centerton1120242010
Lockesburg1020192010
Havana920212010
Stephens820242010
Lurton720231967
Fulton720241967
Nance720241992
Stamps520241967
Rupert520241967
Rudy520242011
Old Milo420241968
Eudora420241967
Ramsey419971967
Hope420241967
Poyen420071967
Harrisburg420191967
Stark420241967

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.