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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Michigan has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has risen sharply in Michigan: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.6 (95% range 1.6–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.6 (95% range 1.6–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.45.4
20263.51.55.4
20273.51.55.5
20283.51.55.5
20293.61.65.5

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holt1120241969
Betchler Lks1120241992
Cohoctah1020242021
Cedar Run919991994
Barry S.G.A.920121997
Lawrence820241969
Skegemog Pt820241974
Mottville820241969
Riggsville820191967
Maple Rapids820231988
Belding 2820242004
Richmond820241999
Cunard720191973
Pleasant Val719971967
Galesburg720241966
Hiawatha Nf720241994
Adrian620181966
Prattville620211967
Lapeer620242000
Hamburg 2620242004
New Troy520241989
Nashville520241968
Coopersville520241990
Beaver Lake520111968
Harrietta520241990

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.