BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Texas has surged: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
153Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Texas: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Texas is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.7–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Texas is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.7–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.32.65.9
20274.32.66.0
20284.32.66.0
20294.42.76.0
20304.42.76.1

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duran5319991995
Arenosa Crk3020251970
Pidcoke 22020252018
Sadler1920251969
Whit Mtn.1920191994
Livingston1820251969
Athens1820251968
Chandler 21820242005
Burton1820251999
Utopia1720241977
Glen Rose1720251968
Weatherford1720251981
Port Acres1720251998
Diboll1620251968
Selden1520251969
Chandler1320041968
Olney1320241969
Easton 21320252014
Ola1220251967
Oak Grove 21220252003
Smyrna1220101995
Miller Grove1120251967
Gainesville1120251967
Thornton 31120252018
Oyster Lake1120102008

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.