BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Texas has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Texas. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.7–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.7–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.32.65.9
20264.32.66.0
20274.32.66.0
20284.42.76.1
20294.42.76.1

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duran5319991995
Graford2520191967
Sadler2120241969
Whit Mtn.1920191994
Chandler 21820242005
Utopia1720241977
Burton1720241999
Easton 21720242014
Danbury1420242005
Rhome1420241971
Arenosa Crk1320241970
Chandler1320041968
Cottonwood1320241967
Miller Grove1320241967
Olney1320241969
Smyrna1220101995
Pidcoke 21120242018
Oyster Lake1120102008
Pidcoke1020171978
Athens1020241968
Glen Rose1020241968
Three Rivers1020241996
Muldoon920241970
Blue Ridge920241988
Union Hill920241994

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.