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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Nebraska has surged: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+296%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Nebraska: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.0–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±197.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±197.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.0–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±197.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.932.9
20272.00.963.0
20282.00.993.0
20292.01.03.0
20302.11.03.1

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murdock2320252018
Brady1320251995
Midway1220251967
Liberty1020031967
Liberty 21020072004
Irvington620251972
Red Cloud520242018
Humboldt520252018
Bartley420252003
Sparta420211984
Johnstown420251967
Johnson320251967
Seward320241973
Eagle Creek320251982
Brownlee320121997
Nenzel320252019
Pine Ridge320242000
Madison320182018
Lyons320252022
Stratton220031987
Surprise220251986
Crookston220252018
Tilden220192019
Boelus220222018
Hendley220252018

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.