BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Nebraska has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+173%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Nebraska: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.0–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±195.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Nebraska is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.0–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±195.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.922.9
20262.00.943.0
20272.00.973.0
20282.01.03.0
20292.01.03.1

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murdock1420242018
Johnson1020241967
Liberty1020031967
Liberty 21020072004
Liberty 3920242009
Brady720241995
Julian520241971
Red Cloud520242018
Belvidere420171970
Sparta420211984
Ringgold420151990
Seward320241973
Bartley320242003
Midway320231967
Johnstown320241967
Brownlee320121997
Pine Ridge320242000
Madison320182018
Humboldt320242018
Kearney220181971
Stratton220031987
Irvington220241972
Surprise220171986
Nenzel220212019
Tilden220192019

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.