BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Ohio has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Ohio is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 3.4–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Ohio is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 3.4–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.13.38.8
20266.13.38.9
20276.13.38.9
20286.23.49.0
20296.23.49.0

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coal Run2919921966
Lucerne2620241992
Marion 22420242024
Herner Crns2020241980
Birmingham1720241988
Greasy Ridge1619911966
Wilgus1620191992
Pittsfield1520241992
W Carrollton1520151989
Dresden1420241966
Smithfield1420241966
Harveysburg 21420241997
Kunkle1220241992
Baxter Ridge1020231998
West Elkton1020121992
Omega1020241966
Rome1020241966
Lockport920241990
Fulton920241966
New Marshfld920241966
Ash Ridge920211992
Hiram920211992
Keene920231992
Garrettsvile819911968
Harveysburg819961966

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.