BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Kentucky is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 1.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Kentucky is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 1.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.21.317
20269.21.317
20279.11.217
20289.01.117
20298.91.117

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bays Fork2820191999
Staffordsvil2519971996
Levee 22420192007
Iron Bridge2219981966
Paintsville2219951979
Merrimac1920241967
Morganfield1920242022
Gatewood1720191966
Dixie1720191967
Canton1620241967
Keysburg1620241968
Million 21520242006
Kings Mtn1420241966
Cumberlnd Gp1220181966
Mckee1220241967
Levee1119821966
Buena Vista1120171966
Gesling1119731967
Bardwell1020031967
Joy1020231966
Porter1020241966
Lovelacevile920241967
Kehoe 2920242005
Goshen919991966
Hodgenville 2920232008

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.