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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.8 (95% range 1.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.8 (95% range 1.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.11.317
20279.11.217
20289.01.217
20298.91.117
20308.81.017

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bays Fork2820191999
Staffordsvil2519971996
Levee 22420192007
Iron Bridge2219981966
Paintsville2219951979
Riverqueen2120252007
Lovelacevile2020251967
Shiloh1920251967
Merrimac1920241967
Gatewood1720191966
Dixie1720191967
Kings Mtn1520251966
Million 21520242006
Cumberlnd Gp1220181966
Hustonville1220251966
Mckee1120251967
Levee1119821966
Eastview1120251967
Buena Vista1120171966
Gesling1119731967
Morganfield1120252022
Canton1020251967
Bardwell1020031967
Joy1020231966
Sewell Shop1020251966

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.