BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Virginia has surged: up 502% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+502%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Virginia: up 502% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 8.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 8.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.915
2026128.115
2027128.215
2028128.315
2029128.515

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ringgold5120241977
Concord3420241967
Irisburg3320241976
Hall3120231972
Finchley3020211994
Gladys3020241994
Carters Brdg 22920242015
White Stone2720241966
Appomattox2720241995
Wylliesburg2620191976
Mannboro2520241967
Moran2520241996
Carters Brdg2320141966
Brodnax2320241973
Taylorstown 22120242012
Tryme1920241975
Pungo1920241975
Blacksburg1820241988
Natural Brid1720241974
Amherst1620241968
Brandy Station1620242017
Port Royal1520191977
Lake Anna1520242021
Jerome1420231972
Big Island1420241968

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.