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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Virginia has surged: up 467% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+467%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Virginia: up 467% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Virginia is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.6–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Virginia is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.015
2027128.215
2028128.315
2029128.415
2030128.615

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Concord3420241967
Blacksburg3420251988
Finchley3020211994
Appomattox2720241995
Wylliesburg2620191976
Big Island2520251968
Carters Brdg 22420252015
Carters Brdg2320141966
Gladys2320251994
Tryme2220251975
Brodnax2220251973
Natural Brid2020251974
Moran2020251996
Ringgold1820251977
Hall1720251972
Amherst1620251968
Fincastle1520251968
Irisburg1520251976
Mannboro1420251967
Brandon1420251992
Jerome1320251972
Newbern1319821971
Hebron 21320252023
Chincoteag W1320241992
White Stone1220251966

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.