BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in South Dakota has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in South Dakota is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.05–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±350.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±350.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in South Dakota is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.05–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±350.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.040.51
20260.280.040.52
20270.280.050.52
20280.290.050.52
20290.290.050.52

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gorman420102007
Wind Cave Np320241999
Tripp220151971
Howard219951970
Geddes220181967
Volga219891969
Wilmot220161967
Conde219831983
Custer220242014
Reva220121993
White River220131998
Hazelrodt220231997
Lennox119921992
Chamberlain120111968
Winner120231988
Rosebud120112009
Raymond120151967
Roswell119931973
Broadland120011989
Lane119991968
Crow Creek120182009
Ft Thompson120041968
Veblen120181971
Britton120171969
Gettysburg120182018

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.