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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Louisiana has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+98%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Louisiana: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Louisiana is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.7–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Louisiana is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.7–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.23.56.9
20265.23.57.0
20275.33.67.0
20285.43.67.1
20295.43.77.2

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bickham2120241985
Hackberry 22120242018
Derry1619891970
Trout1620241988
Mayflower1320241969
Brousville1320242009
Goodwill1320242004
Roseland1220241972
Longstreet1220241967
Fishville 21220242018
Ivan 21220162014
Concord1220192007
Carterville1119921992
Mer Rouge1020081970
Rayville 21020242009
Baton Rouge1020242009
Lacombe919831967
De Quincy920211998
Frogmore920242003
Womack920241999
Ivan920131998
Vinton 2920242011
De Ridder820191967
Fishville820171967
Mount Union820241998

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.