BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Kansas has surged: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+169%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Kansas: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.8 (95% range 5.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.8 (95% range 5.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.25.111
20268.45.311
20278.55.412
20288.65.512
20298.85.712

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanopolis3320241967
Bucyrus3120242022
Trading Post2420242000
Reece2320242000
Lincolnville2020242002
Barclay1820241967
Wreford1620241967
Pittsburg1320182000
Melrose1120231967
Galesburg1120241969
Wellington1120241968
Jewell 21020242006
Severance1020242000
Dalton820241968
Grantville820221967
Le Loup820212000
Humboldt720221969
Hanover720231969
Jewell720051969
Morehead720242000
Ellinor620241968
Gray620191967
Olsburg620242000
Longton620211977
Rock Creek 2620242022

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.