BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in North Dakota has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+18%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in North Dakota is projected to rise about 274% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.12–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±955.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+274%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±955.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in North Dakota is projected to rise about 274% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.12–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±955.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.520.090.96
20270.530.100.96
20280.540.110.97
20290.550.110.98
20300.550.120.98

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kempton620101996
Solen520192006
Lake George420181970
Ft Yates420041973
Stanley420211988
Buchanan320152010
Dunn Center320132013
Horsehead Lk220181999
Bowesmont219721972
Bowman220142014
Roosevelt Pk220171991
Glen Ullin220181997
Bowesmont 2220152015
Forman120001986
Walcott120011970
Sydney119691969
Edgeley120001991
Carson120111990
Emerado120251987
Cooperstown120251972
Nash120132013
Webster119961996
Regan120232009
Dickinson120182018
Carpio120191989

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.