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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Missouri has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Missouri is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.7–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Missouri is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.7–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026137.319
2027137.419
2028147.520
2029147.620
2030147.720

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Hampton4320252014
Frazier3720241967
Gildehouse2719891979
Kingsville2720251992
Cascade2620251967
Miller2620252014
Moselle2420252000
Sticklervill2320251970
Osage Beach2320251997
Mcfall2320251994
Syracuse2220241969
Harrisonville2220252017
Graydon2120251967
Whitewater2120251996
Milford2120252015
Akers2020251967
Kearney1920251994
Hayden1820251975
Kahoka1819981967
Peace Valley1720251975
Richland1720252014
Centertown1620251973
Crane1620251994
Frankford1620251985
House Springs1620252017

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.