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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Missouri has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Missouri is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.7–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Missouri is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.7–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025137.319
2026137.420
2027147.520
2028147.620
2029147.720

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frazier3720241967
Kingsville3320241992
Lucerne3320212016
Kearney3120241994
Whitewater2920241996
Milford2820242015
Osage Beach2720241997
Gildehouse2719891979
Graydon2620241967
Miller2620242014
Centertown2520241973
Eugene2520242013
Cascade2220241967
Syracuse2220241969
Cameron2220231986
Ohio2120241972
Lincoln2120242013
Mincy2020242013
Sticklervill1920241970
Kahoka1819981967
Barks1820241994
West Plains1720242014
Rockingham1620241969
Crane1620241994
Woodlandville1620242013

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.