BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Minnesota has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Minnesota is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.63–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±231.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Minnesota is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.63–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.573.3
20262.00.593.3
20272.00.603.3
20282.00.613.4
20292.00.633.4

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Stephen1720161968
Edwards820241973
Sherburne Nr820241990
Brook Park720241998
Brainerd720241993
Debs620241969
Knapp520241969
Island Lake519881969
Chatfield 2520242005
Nett Lake520242014
Chatfield419991967
Hartland420171968
Minnetonka420231969
Evergreen420241968
Huntley320042004
Backus320241967
Floodwood320191968
Wylie320241970
Grygla320171986
Badger320181985
Le Roy320231997
New London320241994
Mcgregor320241993
Bigfork320241993
Bagley320061995

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.