BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Vermont has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+107%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Vermont: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Vermont is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.28–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Vermont is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.28–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.920.261.6
20260.930.261.6
20270.930.271.6
20280.940.281.6
20290.950.281.6

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fletcher1420241993
Shaftsbury420241966
W Rutland420241966
East Haven420241966
St Johnsbury320221972
North Pownal220241968
Post Mills220241967
East Calais220221966
Grand Isle220221967
Newbury 2220232014
Stowe220231989
Bristol220141995
Marlboro120231966
Stratton120221966
Landgrove120241967
S Reading120231966
Gaysville120172011
S Wallingfrd120221966
Northfld Fls120051980
Middlesex120241969
Newbury119911987
Hardwick120241972
Greensboro120211971
Waterville119701968
Hinesburg119941966

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.