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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+116%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Mississippi: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.84.613
20268.94.713
20279.04.813
20289.14.913
20299.25.013

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Latimer 23420232021
Olive Branch2520011968
Cybur2320191966
Cockrum1820241966
Monticello1820172007
Macon1720241968
Tupelo1620221968
Latimer1620191988
Necaise1620221982
Mt Carmel1420161974
Aberdeen1320241973
Dundee1220221982
Columbia1220181971
Lake1020241966
Corinth1020241972
Neely1020121974
Eagle Lake920182015
Diberville919871979
Water Valley820182015
Tchula 3820241996
Fayette720131966
Scooba719821967
Duffee720081973
Okatibbee L.720081995
Utica620211966

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.