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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in North Carolina has surged: up 413% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+413%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in North Carolina: up 413% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171221
2026171222
2027171222
2028171222
2029181322

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Climax3620241966
Eden3320241987
Jamesville3120241983
Monticello3020241990
Jackson3020171995
Wards Corner2920241982
Call2820241968
Sawmill2720241990
Montague2720241990
Wilgrove2720241995
Dudley2720242002
Oakboro2620241969
South. Pines2519961995
Durham2520241990
Congleton2420242001
Copeland2320241968
Rowland2320241990
Fairview2320241991
Goldston2320222001
Cypress Cr2220221990
Sheffield2220241991
Hulls Xroads2220231997
Bullock2220241997
Siloam2220242005
Osmond2120242001

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.