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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in North Carolina has surged: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+392%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in North Carolina: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171221
2027171222
2028171222
2029171222
2030171322

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Myrtle Grove4220251986
Sawmill3820251990
Climax3420251966
Jackson3020171995
Wards Corner2920241982
Durham2920251990
Call2820251968
Wilgrove2820251995
South. Pines2519961995
Monticello2420251990
Dudley2420252002
Rowland2320241990
Genoa2320251990
Goldston2320222001
Jamesville2220251983
Cypress Cr2220221990
Hulls Xroads2220231997
Montague2120251990
Copeland2020251968
Supply2020251992
Waco2020231989
Pinetops2020241997
Rose1920251971
Oakboro1920251969
California 21920252014

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.