BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in New York has surged: up 303% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+303%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in New York: up 303% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in New York is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in New York is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 2.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.82.03.6
20272.82.13.6
20282.92.13.7
20292.92.13.7
20303.02.23.8

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Youngstown1320251989
Macdougall1220251976
East Java1220251968
Churchville1220251986
Byron920251981
Rhinebeck820251968
Branchport820241970
Nashville820181967
Orleans720251970
Gainesville620231970
Penfield620251968
North Easton620251967
Mt Hope520101968
Austerlitz520251966
Vestal Ctr520191966
Canadice L520251970
N Victory 2520181988
Kasoag520241966
N Wilmurt519981968
Salem520251967
Parishville520251968
Willsboro520241971
Naples520251966
Bedford419911976
Westbrookvle420191966

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.