BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in New York has surged: up 285% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+285%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Bluebird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in New York: up 285% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in New York is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in New York is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.93.5
20262.72.03.5
20272.82.03.5
20282.82.13.6
20292.92.13.6

Eastern Bluebird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Macdougall1820241976
Orleans1520241970
E Youngstown1320231989
Ogdensburg920241990
Branchport820241970
Sheridan820241966
Nashville820181967
Naples820241966
Churchville720241986
Salem720231967
Gainesville620231970
Castile620241986
North Easton620241967
Mt Hope520101968
Ghent520241971
Vestal Ctr520191966
East Java520231968
N Victory 2520181988
Kasoag520241966
N Wilmurt519981968
Willsboro520241971
Bedford419911976
Rhinebeck420241968
Westbrookvle420191966
Duanesburg420241966

Eastern Bluebird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.