BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-39%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.11
20260.040.000.11
20270.040.000.11
20280.040.000.11
20290.040.000.11

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FlemingCOLORADO42003
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA32024
Wildhorse LCOLORADO22006
LakinKANSAS22003
HardestyOKLAHOMA22004
FeltOKLAHOMA22019
CircleTEXAS21977
SkellytownTEXAS22021
DalhartTEXAS21995
AbarrCOLORADO12007
BoyeroCOLORADO11979
GroverCOLORADO12017
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11997
HaswellCOLORADO11993
EllicottCOLORADO12006
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12021
WallaceKANSAS12001
PlymellKANSAS12009
PaxtonNEBRASKA12007
DaltonNEBRASKA11983
CrawfordNEBRASKA12016
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA12018
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA12023
ChanningTEXAS12009
MiamiTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.