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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+317%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 1.6–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±156.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±156.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 1.6–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±156.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.21.46.9
20264.21.57.0
20274.31.57.0
20284.31.67.0
20294.41.67.1

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UtopiaTEXAS172024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS112024
PidcokeTEXAS102017
BoerneTEXAS62019
FitzhughTEXAS61983
AdamsvilleTEXAS62024
Dripping SpgTEXAS52024
LeakeyTEXAS52024
MontellTEXAS52016
GeorgetownTEXAS41982
LeanderTEXAS42006
KempnerTEXAS32024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32024
Valley SpgsTEXAS22024
San SabaTEXAS22019
Indian MtnTEXAS21991
HarperTEXAS12012
ManorTEXAS12018
Allen CreekTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.