BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 712% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+712%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 711% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 8.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 4.6–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 8.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 4.6–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.14.27.9
20266.24.38.0
20276.34.48.2
20286.44.58.3
20296.54.68.4

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokesburyMARYLAND432024
Island CreekMARYLAND332024
WalnutMARYLAND322024
Tall TimbersMARYLAND272014
White StoneVIRGINIA272024
Forest GroveMARYLAND222023
NottinghamMARYLAND222024
La PlataMARYLAND192009
Pr FrederickMARYLAND182024
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT172024
HongaMARYLAND162024
FredericaDELAWARE152014
GeorgetownDELAWARE152022
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND152024
Port RoyalVIRGINIA152019
MillsboroDELAWARE142024
PomfretMARYLAND142024
MillingtonMARYLAND142024
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE142024
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA132024
PomonkeyMARYLAND122024
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND122017
ElktonMARYLAND112024
EastonMARYLAND112021
NewarkMARYLAND112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.