BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±215.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±215.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±215.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025115.916
2026116.016
2027116.116
2028116.216
2029116.316

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuranTEXAS531999
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA322018
GrafordTEXAS252019
BeggsOKLAHOMA232023
SadlerTEXAS212024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA202019
Whit Mtn.TEXAS192019
BurtonTEXAS172024
RhomeTEXAS142024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS132024
CottonwoodTEXAS132024
Miller GroveTEXAS132024
OlneyTEXAS132024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA122024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA122024
Glen RoseTEXAS102024
Three RiversTEXAS102024
MuldoonTEXAS92024
Blue RidgeTEXAS92024
LocoOKLAHOMA81983
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA82009
NobleOKLAHOMA82024
OakwoodTEXAS81995
Wolfe CityTEXAS81987
GainesvilleTEXAS82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.