BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Oaks and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±219.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±219.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 8.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±219.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026115.916
2027116.016
2028116.016
2029116.116
2030116.216

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuranTEXAS531999
Arenosa CrkTEXAS302025
NobleOKLAHOMA252025
BeggsOKLAHOMA232023
SkiatookOKLAHOMA202019
SadlerTEXAS192025
Whit Mtn.TEXAS192019
BurtonTEXAS182025
Glen RoseTEXAS172025
WeatherfordTEXAS172025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA162025
SeldenTEXAS152025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA132025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA132025
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA132025
OlneyTEXAS132024
OlaTEXAS122025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS122025
Miller GroveTEXAS112025
GainesvilleTEXAS112025
Thornton 3TEXAS112025
PaigeTEXAS112025
TatumsOKLAHOMA102025
Massey LakeTEXAS102025
DallasTEXAS102025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.