BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 385% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.23–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±485%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+385%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±485%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 385% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.23–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±485%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.201.1
20260.660.201.1
20270.670.211.1
20280.680.221.1
20290.680.231.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashingtonIOWA82023
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA62010
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA52019
HartlandMINNESOTA42017
SpartaNEBRASKA42021
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA42018
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA42021
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA42010
HuntleyMINNESOTA32004
WylieMINNESOTA32024
GryglaMINNESOTA32017
BadgerMINNESOTA32018
Big StoneMINNESOTA32012
MidwayNEBRASKA32023
MadisonNEBRASKA32018
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA32015
ZearingIOWA21994
ClareIOWA22019
TitonkaIOWA22015
MccallsburgIOWA22024
AppletonMINNESOTA22018
BeltramiMINNESOTA22024
ErieMINNESOTA22012
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA22011
FairmontMINNESOTA22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.