BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 0.45 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.22–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±453.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±453.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 0.45 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.22–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±453.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.191.1
20270.650.201.1
20280.660.211.1
20290.670.211.1
20300.680.221.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MidwayNEBRASKA122025
BeltramiMINNESOTA72025
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA62010
HartlandMINNESOTA42017
SpartaNEBRASKA42021
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA42018
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA42021
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA42010
WylieMINNESOTA32024
GryglaMINNESOTA32017
BadgerMINNESOTA32018
Big StoneMINNESOTA32012
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA32025
MadisonNEBRASKA32018
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA32015
ZearingIOWA21994
ClareIOWA22019
TitonkaIOWA22015
MccallsburgIOWA22024
AppletonMINNESOTA22018
ErieMINNESOTA22012
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA22011
FairmontMINNESOTA22015
LockhartMINNESOTA22001
Winside 2NEBRASKA22013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.