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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 2.9–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 2.9–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.62.76.5
20274.72.76.6
20284.72.86.7
20294.82.86.7
20304.82.96.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA212025
SaffellARKANSAS162019
River RoadLOUISIANA162025
MaynardARKANSAS132025
Baton RougeLOUISIANA132025
ConcordLOUISIANA122019
DundeeMISSISSIPPI122022
BardwellKENTUCKY102003
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY92025
Rayville 2LOUISIANA92025
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI92018
RoselandLOUISIANA82025
MayflowerLOUISIANA72025
RayvilleLOUISIANA72008
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI72025
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI72025
KeystoneLOUISIANA62013
BrousvilleLOUISIANA62025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA52025
KraemerLOUISIANA52025
DeventerMISSOURI52025
EudoraARKANSAS42025
HarrisburgARKANSAS42019
DellARKANSAS42023
UlmARKANSAS42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.