BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has risen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 2.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 2.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.52.66.5
20264.62.66.5
20274.72.76.6
20284.72.86.7
20294.82.86.7

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SaffellARKANSAS162019
EnglandARKANSAS152024
MayflowerLOUISIANA132024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA132024
MaynardARKANSAS122024
RoselandLOUISIANA122024
ConcordLOUISIANA122019
DundeeMISSISSIPPI122022
BardwellKENTUCKY102003
Rayville 2LOUISIANA102024
Baton RougeLOUISIANA102024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA92024
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI92018
River RoadLOUISIANA82024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI82024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI82024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE82023
RayvilleLOUISIANA72008
KeystoneLOUISIANA62013
KraemerLOUISIANA62024
EudoraARKANSAS42024
HarrisburgARKANSAS42019
DellARKANSAS42023
GonzalesLOUISIANA42019
DelhiLOUISIANA42021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.