BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+229%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
340Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.715
2026129.915
2027131015
2028131015
2029131015

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA692011
Big SandyTENNESSEE392024
HendersonGEORGIA352024
Latimer 2MISSISSIPPI342023
HumboldtTENNESSEE342024
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA332019
St FlorianALABAMA322024
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA312024
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA302017
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA292024
MansfieldTENNESSEE292024
BettsFLORIDA282024
WrightsvilleGEORGIA272024
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA272024
DudleyNORTH-CAROLINA272024
ElamvilleALABAMA262024
OusleyGEORGIA252024
Olive BranchMISSISSIPPI252001
South. PinesNORTH-CAROLINA251996
MadridALABAMA242023
ShilohGEORGIA242024
CongletonNORTH-CAROLINA242024
CyburMISSISSIPPI232019
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA232024
Dowling ParkFLORIDA222023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.