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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 3.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 3.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.73.512
20267.73.512
20277.73.512
20287.73.512
20297.73.512

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SandbluffOKLAHOMA411995
MatoyOKLAHOMA322000
PhillipsOKLAHOMA232008
CanadianOKLAHOMA212017
Chandler 2TEXAS182024
BlancoOKLAHOMA172016
Easton 2TEXAS172024
DerryLOUISIANA161989
TroutLOUISIANA162024
BlakelyARKANSAS141999
McalesterOKLAHOMA141991
PocolaOKLAHOMA142016
GoodwillLOUISIANA132024
ChandlerTEXAS132004
LongstreetLOUISIANA122024
Fishville 2LOUISIANA122024
Ivan 2LOUISIANA122016
SmyrnaTEXAS122010
CrowsARKANSAS111991
CartervilleLOUISIANA111992
LockesburgARKANSAS102019
Mer RougeLOUISIANA102008
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA102019
AthensTEXAS102024
HavanaARKANSAS92021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.