BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.1–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±242.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±242.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.1–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±242.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.81.85.7
20263.81.95.8
20273.91.95.9
20284.02.05.9
20294.02.16.0

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VerdenOKLAHOMA412017
KanopolisKANSAS332024
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA171994
HollisOKLAHOMA162024
ElginOKLAHOMA152016
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA151994
WellingtonKANSAS112024
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA112019
Jewell 2KANSAS102024
LibertyNEBRASKA102003
Liberty 2NEBRASKA102007
RandlettOKLAHOMA102024
Liberty 3NEBRASKA92024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA92024
CashionOKLAHOMA92024
DaltonKANSAS82024
HanoverKANSAS72023
JewellKANSAS72005
BradyNEBRASKA72024
GrimesOKLAHOMA72024
WilliamsTEXAS72021
GrayKANSAS62019
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA61994
ColdwaterKANSAS52019
DamarKANSAS52012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.