BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 4.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025114.917
2026114.917
2027114.917
2028114.917
2029114.917

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DelwoodILLINOIS432024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE402024
SwaimALABAMA342024
BelknapILLINOIS322024
WhitewaterMISSOURI292024
Indian MoundTENNESSEE291998
Bays ForkKENTUCKY282019
Osage BeachMISSOURI272024
ZionARKANSAS262024
GraydonMISSOURI262024
MillerMISSOURI262024
ElkmontALABAMA252024
CentertownMISSOURI252024
EugeneMISSOURI252024
Levee 2KENTUCKY242019
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE232024
HillsboroALABAMA221996
New PhilaINDIANA222024
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY221998
CascadeMISSOURI222024
SyracuseMISSOURI222024
LincolnMISSOURI212024
VevayINDIANA202024
ScottsburgINDIANA202024
MincyMISSOURI202024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.