BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Peninsular Florida has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.005.7
20272.80.005.7
20282.80.005.7
20292.80.005.7
20302.80.005.7

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RomeoFLORIDA382025
GoetheFLORIDA182025
ChassahowitzFLORIDA182025
Mt. OliveFLORIDA172025
CorbettFLORIDA132022
NobletonFLORIDA122025
CroomFLORIDA102025
WebbFLORIDA102025
Winter GardnFLORIDA92019
CitrusFLORIDA92025
St AugustineFLORIDA82025
Myakka HeadFLORIDA72011
Pennywash CrFLORIDA72024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA71990
San AntonioFLORIDA62025
MabelFLORIDA62011
GardnerFLORIDA61998
AripekaFLORIDA62025
Island GroveFLORIDA62025
BelmoreFLORIDA52024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA52025
KenansvilleFLORIDA52025
FlemingtonFLORIDA51999
SandyFLORIDA52014
PalmdaleFLORIDA51998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.