BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.005.5
20262.60.005.5
20272.60.005.4
20282.60.005.4
20292.60.005.4

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RomeoFLORIDA302024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA232024
NobletonFLORIDA182024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA182024
GoetheFLORIDA172024
San AntonioFLORIDA162024
CroomFLORIDA132024
CorbettFLORIDA132022
WebbFLORIDA112024
Winter GardnFLORIDA92019
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA82024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA72011
Pennywash CrFLORIDA72024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA72024
Mabel 2FLORIDA72019
Babcock RnchFLORIDA71990
MabelFLORIDA62011
GardnerFLORIDA61998
BelmoreFLORIDA52024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA52024
FlemingtonFLORIDA51999
SandyFLORIDA52014
PalmdaleFLORIDA51998
Lake BuffumFLORIDA52024
Dale MabryFLORIDA41988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.