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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Eastern Bluebird In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.39–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±142.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.39–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.393.3
20271.80.393.3
20281.80.393.3
20291.80.393.3
20301.80.393.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Betchler LksMICHIGAN112024
Union TwpWISCONSIN102025
Cedar RunMICHIGAN91999
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN82019
CunardMICHIGAN72019
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN71997
DebsMINNESOTA72025
BrainerdMINNESOTA72024
CouderayWISCONSIN62019
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN52011
BackusMINNESOTA52025
Island LakeMINNESOTA51988
Nett LakeMINNESOTA52024
MinongWISCONSIN52024
MareniscoMICHIGAN42019
CathroMICHIGAN42016
Sand LakeMICHIGAN42025
HarriettaMICHIGAN42025
MayfieldMICHIGAN42025
Hart LakeMINNESOTA42025
Iron RiverWISCONSIN42025
Rib LakeWISCONSIN42024
BashawWISCONSIN42025
OntonagonMICHIGAN32014
WilsonMICHIGAN32009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.