BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
275Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has risen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.6 (95% range 4.1–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.6 (95% range 4.1–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.33.88.8
20266.43.98.8
20276.43.98.9
20286.54.09.0
20296.64.19.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FrazierMISSOURI372024
KingsvilleMISSOURI332024
LucerneMISSOURI332021
BucyrusKANSAS312024
KearneyMISSOURI312024
MilfordMISSOURI282024
GildehouseMISSOURI271989
Trading PostKANSAS242024
Marion 2OHIO242024
ReeceKANSAS232024
CameronMISSOURI222023
WainwrightOKLAHOMA222013
OhioMISSOURI212024
LincolnvilleKANSAS202024
SticklervillMISSOURI192024
BarclayKANSAS182024
KahokaMISSOURI181998
WrefordKANSAS162024
RockinghamMISSOURI162024
MarshallILLINOIS152024
BrookvilleINDIANA152024
MoselleMISSOURI152024
W CarrolltonOHIO152015
River FallsWISCONSIN152024
FloraILLINOIS142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.