BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+93%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
275Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.1–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 5.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.1–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.33.88.8
20276.43.98.9
20286.44.08.9
20296.54.09.0
20306.64.19.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New HamptonMISSOURI432025
ReeceKANSAS412025
FrazierMISSOURI372024
Trading PostKANSAS272025
GildehouseMISSOURI271989
KingsvilleMISSOURI272025
BucyrusKANSAS252025
MoselleMISSOURI242025
SticklervillMISSOURI232025
McfallMISSOURI232025
MurdockNEBRASKA232025
HarrisonvilleMISSOURI222025
WainwrightOKLAHOMA222013
MilfordMISSOURI212025
LincolnvilleKANSAS202024
KearneyMISSOURI192025
KahokaMISSOURI181998
Terre HauteILLINOIS172025
BradburyILLINOIS172025
WrefordKANSAS162024
FrankfordMISSOURI162025
House SpringsMISSOURI162025
JamestownILLINOIS152025
GalesburgKANSAS152025
FilleyMISSOURI152025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.