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Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 2.5–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 2.5–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.82.37.3
20274.82.47.3
20284.92.47.4
20295.02.57.5
20305.02.57.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LakevilleINDIANA192024
PackertownINDIANA182004
Fall RiverWISCONSIN132025
LagrangeINDIANA102025
St StephenMINNESOTA102025
CochraneWISCONSIN102025
WiotaWISCONSIN102025
KnoxINDIANA92025
CohoctahMICHIGAN92025
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN92012
OmroWISCONSIN92001
MerideanWISCONSIN92025
EllisINDIANA82024
Packertown 2INDIANA82025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN82025
NashvilleMICHIGAN82025
RichmondMICHIGAN82024
EdwardsMINNESOTA82024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN82025
HighlandWISCONSIN82025
RemusMICHIGAN72025
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN72025
Brook ParkMINNESOTA72025
LoraineWISCONSIN72025
HatfieldWISCONSIN71998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.