BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.6–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.6–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.82.37.3
20264.92.47.4
20274.92.47.4
20285.02.57.5
20295.12.67.6

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LakevilleINDIANA192024
PackertownINDIANA182004
St StephenMINNESOTA172016
LagrangeINDIANA132024
KnoxINDIANA122024
HoltMICHIGAN112024
CochraneWISCONSIN112024
N FreedomWISCONSIN112024
CohoctahMICHIGAN102024
CumberlandWISCONSIN102024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN102024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN102024
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN92012
LockportOHIO92024
OmroWISCONSIN92001
GreshamWISCONSIN92024
EllisINDIANA82024
LawrenceMICHIGAN82024
MottvilleMICHIGAN82024
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN82023
Belding 2MICHIGAN82024
RichmondMICHIGAN82024
EdwardsMINNESOTA82024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA82024
Rolling GrndWISCONSIN82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.