BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Piedmont has surged: up 340% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+340%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
169Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Piedmont: up 340% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Piedmont is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 15–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Piedmont is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 15–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171520
2026171520
2027181520
2028181520
2029181521

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA672019
RinggoldVIRGINIA512024
MaxeysGEORGIA402024
ClimaxNORTH-CAROLINA362024
BlacksburgSOUTH-CAROLINA362013
ConcordVIRGINIA342024
AthensGEORGIA332024
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA332024
IrisburgVIRGINIA332024
HebronGEORGIA322022
Stoney PointGEORGIA312007
HallVIRGINIA312023
CandlerGEORGIA302024
MonticelloNORTH-CAROLINA302024
FinchleyVIRGINIA302021
GladysVIRGINIA302024
Barton CreekSOUTH-CAROLINA292022
Carters Brdg 2VIRGINIA292024
OlneyMARYLAND282024
MadonnaMARYLAND282022
CallNORTH-CAROLINA282024
EmmitsburgMARYLAND272024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND272024
EarltonMARYLAND272024
SawmillNORTH-CAROLINA272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.