BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+134%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.46–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.46–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.421.5
20260.990.431.6
20271.00.441.6
20281.00.451.6
20291.00.461.6

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FletcherVERMONT142024
TurnerMAINE91997
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE92024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE62021
SearsportMAINE62024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
HancockMAINE52024
Northfield 2MAINE52021
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
KasoagNEW-YORK52024
WestbrookMAINE42024
FreedomMAINE42021
RomeMAINE42023
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS42024
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS42024
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE41995
W RutlandVERMONT42024
East HavenVERMONT42024
HarmonyMAINE32024
EastbrookMAINE32024
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.