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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Bluebird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+130%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Bluebird In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.50–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.50–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.451.6
20271.00.461.6
20281.00.471.6
20291.10.481.6
20301.10.501.6

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TurnerMAINE91997
EastbrookMAINE72025
Bowdoin CtrMAINE62021
SearsportMAINE62024
Northfield 2MAINE52021
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS52025
KasoagNEW-YORK52024
WestbrookMAINE42024
FreedomMAINE42021
CharlestonMAINE42021
RomeMAINE42023
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS42024
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS42025
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE41995
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
GreenwoodMAINE32025
HancockMAINE32025
Carrying PlMAINE32025
Turner 2MAINE32025
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.