BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-37%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Bluebird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 166% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.04–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±294.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+166%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±294.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 166% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.04–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±294.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.030.33
20260.180.040.33
20270.180.040.33
20280.190.040.33
20290.190.040.33

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SavageMONTANA62017
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA52019
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA42004
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA32013
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
LocateMONTANA21994
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA22014
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA22017
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA22018
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA22012
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA22013
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING22004
LindsayMONTANA12017
CrookstonNEBRASKA12023
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA12001
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA12018
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA12019
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA12019
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA12018
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA12012
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA12018
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA11997
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.