BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Bluebird In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Eastern Bluebird in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+293%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Bluebird has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.1–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Bluebird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.1–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.943.2
20262.10.973.2
20272.11.03.3
20282.21.03.3
20292.21.13.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Bluebird in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA212024
DanburyTEXAS142024
Oyster LakeTEXAS112010
Vinton 2LOUISIANA92024
VintonLOUISIANA82009
Port AcresTEXAS82024
Hinkles FerTEXAS62024
KatyTEXAS62024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS52024
WinnieTEXAS42024
Moon LakeTEXAS42011
RichardLOUISIANA32023
McfaddinTEXAS32016
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22015
HackberryLOUISIANA12014
GlencoeLOUISIANA12018
EstherLOUISIANA12023
MauriceLOUISIANA12023
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12019
Forked IslandLOUISIANA12019
StowellTEXAS12022
Rock IslandTEXAS12024
ChinquapinTEXAS12024
San PedroTEXAS12018
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.