BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Analysis

ColumbidaeGeneralistsColumba livia

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3,136RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Rock Pigeon

The familiar city pigeon, introduced from Europe, the Rock Pigeon nests on ledges and buildings and is one of the most recognizable birds worldwide.

Size
12–14.5 in long, about 12.3 oz (30–37 cm, 350 g)
Habitat
A broad range of open and wooded habitats, often near people.
Diet
Seeds, grain and urban food scraps.
Range
Recorded on 3,136 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 49 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Columbidae · Generalists
Conservation
Least Concern (introduced)

Notable Rock Pigeon TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.1–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.1–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.11.54.8
20273.11.44.7
20283.01.34.6
20292.91.24.5
20302.81.14.4

Where the Rock Pigeon Is Detected

BBS routes recording Rock Pigeon, sized by most recent count.

Rock Pigeon Population Trend by State

Rock Pigeon population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-55%196887
Alaska-88%19738
Arizona+653%197137
Arkansas-42%196938
California+50%1970161
Colorado-17%197093
Connecticut-92%196818
Delaware-0%196817
Florida+32%196886
Georgia-22%196884
Idaho+27%197040
Illinois-73%1968105
Indiana-11%196867
Iowa-53%196939
Kansas+42%196964
Kentucky-58%196857
Louisiana-81%196969
Maine+274%196854
Maryland-60%196875
Massachusetts-55%196829
Michigan-31%196892
Minnesota-13%196977
Mississippi-50%196840
Missouri-63%196986
Montana+332%197090
Nebraska-35%196963
Nevada+7%199016
New Hampshire-59%196822
New Jersey-61%196840
New Mexico-33%197040
New York-43%1968124
North Carolina-4%196882
North Dakota+386%196951
Ohio-57%196886
Oklahoma+66%196958
Oregon+104%197071
Pennsylvania-59%1968130
Rhode Island-73%19694
South Carolina-75%196834
South Dakota+40%196956
Tennessee-63%196846
Texas-37%1969179
Utah+104%197434
Vermont+12%196826
Virginia-56%196865
Washington+285%197082
West Virginia-63%196856
Wisconsin-21%196892
Wyoming-5%197066

Rock Pigeon Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Rock Pigeon population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-4%197078
Great Basin+249%1970154
Northern Rockies+65%197099
Prairie Potholes+44%1969124
Boreal Hardwood Transition+252%196891
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-33%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest+22%1968122
Sierra Nevada+33%19789
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-49%197080
Badlands and Prairies+435%1969111
Shortgrass Prairie+274%1969117
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-4%1969102
Edwards Plateau-47%197114
Oaks and Prairies-82%196966
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-65%1968275
Prairie Hardwood Transition-24%1968160
Central Hardwoods-65%1968144
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-77%196970
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-39%196855
Southeastern Coastal Plain-7%1968248
Appalachian Mountains-48%1968338
Piedmont-81%1968147
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-71%1968152
Peninsular Florida-28%196956
Coastal California+41%197096
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts13×197149
Sierra Madre Occidental-72%197512
Chihuahuan Desert+25%197525
Tamaulipan Brushlands-61%196921
Gulf Coastal Prairie-50%196932

Rock Pigeon Conservation Status

Least Concern (introduced)

A species introduced to North America; the IUCN Red List rates it as Least Concern in its native range. Our route-weighted index shows it down about 50% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.