BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Pennsylvania has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Pennsylvania: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 1.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 1.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.12.616
20278.92.415
20288.72.215
20298.42.015
20308.21.715

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Akron21419971989
Leola11220251998
Ryde10920051968
Mifflintown9220251966
Williamsburg7720251988
Brunnerville5620091969
Doubling Gap5319771966
Ephrata4919881969
Aspers4319891968
Starlight4119881985
Sporting Hil4119771977
Ravensburg4019801966
Doylesburg4020232009
Drehersville 24020252000
Scheafferstn3920011966
Sugar Grove3820251980
Doe Run3620251969
Pottstown3519871966
Brunnerville 23520252010
Arnot3320251969
West Grove3319961966
Mt Gretna 23120222001
Labott2819831966
Mount Joy2720251978
Millville2620251969

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.