BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Minnesota has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.8 (95% range 1.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.8 (95% range 1.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.22.212
20267.12.112
20277.02.012
20286.91.912
20296.81.812

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Courtland8420241978
Chandler4020231969
Chokio3820241969
Caledonia3620101993
Whitewater2820001994
Millville2520191967
Gluek2520191967
Caledonia 22520242014
Le Roy2420241993
Nebish2320191990
Hartland2220171967
Evergreen1920241969
Oklee1920211969
Brook Park1620241998
Osseo1520241967
Glyndon1520241978
Lakeville1420191968
Lockhart1420241993
Brainerd1320241993
Whitewater 21320192011
Arlington1220241967
Frontenac1220241993
Chatfield1119991967
St Stephen1120161967
Le Center1120231993

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.