BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Minnesota has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Minnesota is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 2.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Minnesota is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 2.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.32.412
20277.22.312
20287.12.212
20297.02.112
20307.02.012

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chokio7320251969
Lakeville5820251968
Chokio North5720251993
Evergreen4820251969
Caledonia3620101993
Beltrami3220251967
Courtland2920251978
Brook Park2820251998
Whitewater2820001994
Gluek2520191967
Franklin2320251993
Hartland2220171967
Millville2020251967
Oklee1920211969
Redwood Fall1820251978
Le Roy1820251993
Fairmont1820251993
Ash Creek1720251975
Princeton1620251969
Osseo1520251967
Appleton1420251978
Le Center1420251993
Lockhart1420251993
Floodwood1320251996
Brainerd1320241993

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.