BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Arkansas has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Pigeon in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Arkansas is projected to rise about 235% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+235%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Arkansas is projected to rise about 235% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.005.3
20262.50.005.3
20272.40.005.3
20282.40.005.2
20292.40.005.2

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massard4720221967
Marshall1620192013
Hughes1120221967
South Bend820061971
Dell820242010
Hope620121976
Lurton619951993
Maynard620241967
England620232021
Wilson620241993
Poyen519681968
Centerton520112011
Ashdown419991973
Whitton419911968
Avoca420141969
Harrisburg320041972
Compton320211975
Russell320212011
Havana320192013
Old Milo220031971
Ramsey219691969
Locust Bayou220011976
Stamps220161978
Crows219911967
Blakely219981969

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.