BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Ohio has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Ohio: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Ohio is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Ohio is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.40.0014
20276.20.0014
20286.10.0013
20295.90.0013
20305.70.0013

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bismark7819951967
Lucerne6320251992
Tecumseh5219821966
W Carrollton5220151989
Troy5119961966
Kenton3720131966
Wilmington3719961966
Maysville3220121992
Lattasburg2920251966
Lockport2520251966
Botkins2420191992
New Somerset2419931966
Omega2220241966
Garrettsvile2019911966
Marion 21920252024
Limestone1820251986
Keene1820231992
Winterset1519831967
Dunlap1419881966
Birmingham1420231988
Coshocton1419901990
New Dover1220181966
Norwalk1220191979
Greasy Ridge1119911966
Enon1120231984

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.