BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Iowa

All statesGeneralists

Rock Pigeon in Iowa has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rock Pigeon Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rock Pigeon has fallen sharply in Iowa: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rock Pigeon Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Iowa is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 7.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Pigeon in Iowa is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 7.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.00.0010
20263.70.009.9
20273.40.009.6
20283.10.009.3
20292.80.009.0

Rock Pigeon Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Rock Pigeon in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gaza3820231969
Festina2120241968
Kanawha1820241967
Hudson1620221967
Rock Valley1520241968
Exline1420241974
Desmoines1419791968
Garner1419931971
Tipton1420241993
Washington1320241967
Mt Hamill1220241967
Burchinal1120241995
Alice1019991972
Mccallsburg1020241996
Cedar Valley919971967
Dinsdale920241968
Bryant820241967
Clare820191967
Pierson820181968
West Liberty720241968
Washta720131967
Prairieburg620241971
Zearing619951967
Davis Corner620241968
Titonka520191968

Rock Pigeon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.